Authors: Marijke de Vet, I. Vouk, E. Murphy & D. van Proosdij
Publication type: A1
Abstract
In September 2022, post-tropical storm Fiona made landfall in Atlantic Canada, bringing record low atmospheric pressure and sustained winds up to 34 m/s. The Cumberland Basin, within the hypertidal Bay of Fundy (tidal ranges up to 13 m), is susceptible to flooding driven by combined high tides and storm surges. However, the absence of a permanent tide gauge complicates the assessment of storm surge magnitude and its synchronization with astronomical tides. This research utilized a TELEMAC-2D numerical hydrodynamic model driven by ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data to research tide-surge dynamics in the Cumberland Basin. Simulations included four dynamic historical wind fields and three tidal cycles, systematically shifting storm timing relative to high tide. Each storm showed different tide-surge interactions, with wind direction along the Bay of Fundy’s long axis proving significant, alongside atmospheric pressure, storm duration, and wind strength. The most intense storm investigated, with maximum wind speeds of 15.4 m/s, resulted in a 1.5 m skew surge when maximum wind preceded astronomical high tide. The systematic shifting of maximum wind speed demonstrated that, in the Cumberland Basin, tide-surge interactions do not always follow conventional models that suggest maximum storm surges tend to cluster on the rising limb of the tide, and are significantly more complex, depending on both storm and tide characteristics. These findings can be used to improve flood risk projections and guide adaptation plans, promoting resilience and sustainable development in vulnerable coastal areas.